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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Texas State Bobcats vs. South Alabama Jaguars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas State Bobcatsof Texas State Bobcats, South Alabama Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,892 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb78…5206backed South Alabama Jaguars48c2,521$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.082737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked South Alabama Jaguars64c2,222$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.062,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Texas State Bobcats73c1,963$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.491,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texas State Bobcats78c1,578$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.865,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked South Alabama Jaguars26c1,464$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.681,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed South Alabama Jaguars29c1,355$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.792,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Texas State Bobcats60c1,337$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.943,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked South Alabama Jaguars26c1,170$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.71,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked South Alabama Jaguars27c1,164$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.631,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Texas State Bobcats36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.3324847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked South Alabama Jaguars47c746.4$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.291,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Texas State Bobcats54c740.04$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8749345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas State Bobcats70c724.39$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.563,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Texas State Bobcats36c658.92$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.021,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed South Alabama Jaguars27c652.5$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.432,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Texas State Bobcats36c622.46$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.9436845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed South Alabama Jaguars46c536.41$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.752,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed South Alabama Jaguars43c522.3$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.893247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Texas State Bobcats35c501.42$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9278052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed South Alabama Jaguars18c499.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9025325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed South Alabama Jaguars12c430.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.97626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Texas State Bobcats36c388$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.794,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked South Alabama Jaguars65c387.72$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.757540%30 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Texas State Bobcats36c333.3$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3124737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed South Alabama Jaguars61c321$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.811,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked South Alabama Jaguars65c309.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20045351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed South Alabama Jaguars63c305.15$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2455840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed South Alabama Jaguars64c301.98$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.191,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Texas State Bobcats40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Texas State Bobcats66c300$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Texas State Bobcats36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas State Bobcats63c265.37$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.344,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05aa…aca6backed South Alabama Jaguars43c252.97$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1094344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Texas State Bobcats54c248.07$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.582,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed South Alabama Jaguars62c230$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.445,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Texas State Bobcats66c223$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8274152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed South Alabama Jaguars21c209.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.211,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed South Alabama Jaguars66c208.31$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.272248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed South Alabama Jaguars43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Texas State Bobcats38c199.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Texas State Bobcats58c197.71$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.461,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked South Alabama Jaguars13c191.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257227.8%20 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Texas State Bobcats76c190.96$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9216054.4%87 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked South Alabama Jaguars65c166.45$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.192,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Texas State Bobcats35c156.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6350745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed South Alabama Jaguars64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed South Alabama Jaguars34c150.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.681,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb5…c2adbacked South Alabama Jaguars49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.59352.7%49 W · 44 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Texas State Bobcats69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.936342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Texas State Bobcats36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8983350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Texas State Bobcats43c135.64$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5337947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Texas State Bobcats36c135$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.41,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Texas State Bobcats37c135$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0513743.8%60 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Texas State Bobcats64c128.57$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d20…9871backed South Alabama Jaguars64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Texas State Bobcats50c106$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6917627.8%49 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Texas State Bobcats46c104$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1661446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f6…126ebacked Texas State Bobcats58c103.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+40.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…2f3dbacked South Alabama Jaguars64c101.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked South Alabama Jaguars38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6614151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed South Alabama Jaguars57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.240849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed South Alabama Jaguars24c97.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23260%0 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc49f…e88ebacked South Alabama Jaguars54c93.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Texas State Bobcats36c90.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.211,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Texas State Bobcats36c84.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.924340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked South Alabama Jaguars66c76.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Texas State Bobcats37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.19035.6%32 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Texas State Bobcats56c63.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0871655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed South Alabama Jaguars16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed South Alabama Jaguars65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3964658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Texas State Bobcats36c56.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3721937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Texas State Bobcats47c53.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0818557.8%107 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed South Alabama Jaguars47c52.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7670936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Texas State Bobcats80c51.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3852353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5904…940fbacked South Alabama Jaguars64c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295263.5%33 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a26…7189backed South Alabama Jaguars42c44.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.882222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Texas State Bobcats73c43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4631666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Texas State Bobcats35c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.861244.9%275 W · 337 L+1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Texas State Bobcats37c30.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2916140.4%65 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Texas State Bobcats36c30.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3910753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed South Alabama Jaguars42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.530945.6%141 W · 168 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed South Alabama Jaguars65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512748.8%62 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Texas State Bobcats75c29.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2794036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x049e…55b1backed Texas State Bobcats71c26.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.735168.6%35 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas State Bobcats59c23.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.911,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Texas State Bobcats64c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8633445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95dc…4b45backed South Alabama Jaguars65c17.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.232466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf335…0a08backed South Alabama Jaguars64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.