Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9a72e81d1141208807d82a55803197b70531bc471c1d294fa75defb5985533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 476.03$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 57c | 421.62$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.21 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 50c | 409.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 20c | 399.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 73c | 275.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 271.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 16c | 238.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 43c | 232$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 78c | 228.01$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 41c | 227.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 195.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 35c | 187.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 174.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 170.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 54c | 153.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 150.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 14c | 147.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 45c | 146$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 42c | 141.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 133$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…aad6backed No | 57c | 119.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 42c | 111$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 56c | 102.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 3.5%18 W · 498 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 62c | 98.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 57c | 97.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed No | 73c | 94.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 94.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 90.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 85.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 52c | 83.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 163 | 70.6%115 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 67c | 72.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 59c | 55.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 72c | 54.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 54.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Yes | 58c | 54.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 59c | 53.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 77c | 51.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 56c | 50.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 51c | 50.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 54c | 46.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 55c | 44.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 43.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 42c | 43.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 41.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 39c | 40.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 57c | 39.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…ad7abacked No | 52c | 37.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 68c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 73c | 35.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 34.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…c90cbacked No | 42c | 34.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 33.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 30.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 40c | 29.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 29.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed Yes | 62c | 26.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed Yes | 58c | 24.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 50c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 60c | 22.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 58c | 22.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 51c | 22.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 58c | 21.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -10.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…3351backed Yes | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 18.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 61c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.