Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7e64ec8b6f39e87653f507200e48d76c102eede5013f79165823a189d001a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 31c | 1,019$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.8 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 37c | 928$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.36 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 461.28$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.21 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 460.22$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.67 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 439.43$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.9 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 367.32$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.25 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 31c | 322.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.24 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 291.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 263$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 76c | 253.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 62c | 171$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 67c | 141.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 141.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 133.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 131.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 31c | 128.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 303 | 69%209 W · 94 L | +28.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 33c | 123.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 62c | 122.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 121.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 117$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 51c | 112.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 78.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 71c | 68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 67.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 27c | 54.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 46c | 53.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 56c | 45.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 61c | 44.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…d23abacked No | 57c | 44.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 38.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 62c | 38.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 53c | 35.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…8a0abacked Yes | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…82d1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…9651backed No | 56c | 28.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 44c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 26.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 71c | 23.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 23.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 56c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 19.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.