Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: sleepers vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cfeabc458a431e27534fe837dad04ecc40b39ddd30670f3e36379dfe18b7d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- sleepersof sleepers, Division One
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x697f…b756backed Division One | 17c | 4,736$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.99 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Division One | 19c | 1,772$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.65 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Division One | 19c | 1,509$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.7 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…4e35backed Division One | 19c | 894.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Division One | 19c | 622.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Division One | 16c | 611.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 231 | 46.8%108 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Division One | 20c | 594.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…a152backed sleepers | 77c | 490.13$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Division One | 19c | 448.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Division One | 12c | 420.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Division One | 19c | 370.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…bfe6backed Division One | 19c | 353.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Division One | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Division One | 18c | 282.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Division One | 17c | 237.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Division One | 16c | 217.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Division One | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…cee9backed Division One | 19c | 178.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Division One | 19c | 178.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b6…fdefbacked Division One | 15c | 163.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Division One | 17c | 153.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Division One | 19c | 148.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Division One | 16c | 136.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Division One | 16c | 130.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e7…174fbacked Division One | 16c | 105.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Division One | 15c | 101.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Division One | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Division One | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…1a5cbacked sleepers | 79c | 98.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Division One | 19c | 82.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked sleepers | 79c | 78.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 312 | 27.6%86 W · 226 L | -33.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Division One | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Division One | 19c | 68.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Division One | 18c | 56.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Division One | 23c | 47.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed sleepers | 78c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.