Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dd5fa45b3981cebe888e827438ac39334d70ea77c4d8c9c8dad4dbcc179496c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 400.93$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 67c | 338.86$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 45c | 280$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 78c | 266.63$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 56c | 221.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 221$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 217.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 204$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 49c | 198.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 196.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 169.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 163.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 31c | 163.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 160.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 158$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…d76fbacked Yes | 42c | 156.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 149.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 13c | 149.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 20c | 143.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 143.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 141$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 30c | 136.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 133.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 39c | 117.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 111.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 107.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 49c | 103.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 44c | 99.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 87.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 78c | 86.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 86.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 81.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 80.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 80.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 80.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 78.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…a226backed No | 14c | 75.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 45c | 74.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 49c | 73.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 38c | 72.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…b4cdbacked No | 49c | 70.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 67.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…2e15backed No | 49c | 66.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 65.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 64.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 60.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 55.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5749backed Yes | 44c | 55.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 56c | 52.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 52.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 52.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 51.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 49c | 50.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…4322backed Yes | 45c | 50.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 31c | 50.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 50.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked No | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 29c | 47.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 57c | 47.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…791ebacked Yes | 42c | 45.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 45.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked No | 58c | 44.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…c1e1backed No | 60c | 43.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 42.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 48c | 40.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 57c | 40.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed No | 60c | 39.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 49c | 39.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 39.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 51c | 37.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 40c | 35.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 34.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd007…8eedbacked Yes | 78c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 32.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 50c | 29.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 55c | 25.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.