Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17dfbc6695a2d27322f8292d4a31ec67747062beda25aa4764d2bb260b942547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 39c | 675.26$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.94 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 66c | 472.97$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 334.46$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 313.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 229.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 224.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 220.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 219.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 218.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 179.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed No | 75c | 159.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 66c | 152.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 13c | 138.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 138$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 135.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 8c | 134.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 132.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec64…17c9backed Yes | 40c | 125.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 31c | 124.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 121.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 121.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 119$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 117.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 68c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 112.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 111.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 109.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…a226backed Yes | 13c | 105.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 91.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 87.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 86.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 39c | 78.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 65.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 61.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 58.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 66c | 56.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 35c | 54.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 53.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 53.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 50.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 50.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 48.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 64c | 47.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 47.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 42.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 40.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 66c | 39.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 67c | 38.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 38.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 38.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 43c | 36.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 34.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 33.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 38c | 32.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…2f98backed No | 67c | 31.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 28.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 69c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 59c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…9086backed No | 66c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 66c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 62c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.