TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,351 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes39c675.26$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9440226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No66c472.97$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c334.46$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c313.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.752,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c229.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes36c225$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes36c224.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes13c220.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.371,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No67c219.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.61,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c218.85$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c179.47$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed No75c159.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5518035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e8e…9665backed No66c152.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.53943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes13c138.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.372,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c138$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.015,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes34c135.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes8c134.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes37c132.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec64…17c9backed Yes40c125.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes31c124.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0210030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c121.68$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes32c121.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.177,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No74c119$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5260054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c117.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.282,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No68c117$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3121268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No68c112.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.291,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c111.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.314,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No68c109.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4919…89a1backed Yes33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x082d…a226backed Yes13c105.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0180%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c101$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.344,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.21,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c91.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.392,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c87.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.746,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes16c87.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.419217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c86.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes39c78.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8113242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8db…458dbacked Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes30c66.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes31c65.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.149,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No66c61.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes37c58.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No66c56.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2919648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5965934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed Yes35c54.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c53.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.086,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c53.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.919,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No64c50.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes22c50.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d3…c14bbacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c48.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.113,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes27c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1315722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d8…8f53backed No64c47.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.115172.5%37 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No68c47.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes34c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9822744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes32c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No60c42.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes36c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7613738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c40.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No66c39.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4425258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No67c38.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0239966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes37c38.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0943848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c38.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.367,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes32c37.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0454547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed Yes43c36.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes30c34.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No66c33.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.471,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09a7…5b77backed Yes38c32.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No62c32.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f8…2f98backed No67c31.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No68c28.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2513274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No63c23.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.861,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No67c23.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.762,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7326958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67e2…be4bbacked No69c21.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.676360.3%38 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No59c20.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4533350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66cc…9086backed No66c20.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…26aabacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No66c18.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1312070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No62c18.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7723538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No65c16.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.931,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…dd79backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.635457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.