TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification WTA: Kayla Day vs Julieta Pareja

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Julieta Parejaof Kayla Day, Julieta Pareja
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,506 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Kayla Day55c12,687$6,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.4110553.3%56 W · 49 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Julieta Pareja54c10,362$5,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,808.48,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Julieta Pareja45c7,292$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.7511,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked Kayla Day41c3,091$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.3925255.2%139 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Kayla Day35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011342.5%48 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kayla Day34c2,753$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.874,12644.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L+13.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Kayla Day52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9945251.5%233 W · 219 L-21.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Julieta Pareja60c1,856$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.138,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6387…95dcbacked Kayla Day54c1,818$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.822755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Julieta Pareja57c1,636$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.092,69647.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L+46.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Kayla Day51c1,434$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.512752.8%67 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Kayla Day52c1,250$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65074343.7%325 W · 418 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Kayla Day44c1,174$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5422339%87 W · 136 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Julieta Pareja34c1,125$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.753,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Kayla Day55c1,008$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.5119459.3%115 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Julieta Pareja39c909$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.6330335.3%107 W · 196 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Julieta Pareja64c870$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.280558.6%472 W · 333 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d3…8a20backed Julieta Pareja64c809.33$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.89466%62 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Julieta Pareja36c799.99$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.9935038.3%134 W · 216 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed Julieta Pareja53c763.31$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.7745457%259 W · 195 L+27.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Kayla Day29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Julieta Pareja43c618.1$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.592,99757.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L+170.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed Kayla Day67c617.64$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.822955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Kayla Day64c602.5$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.684349.8%420 W · 423 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Julieta Pareja52c555.94$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.282,00453.2%1,067 W · 937 L+52.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Julieta Pareja33c524.42$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.362,13736.8%787 W · 1,350 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Kayla Day25c522.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.281,25238.8%486 W · 766 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Julieta Pareja36c475.82$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.5271852.8%379 W · 339 L+35.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kayla Day12c475.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.494,87541.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L-77.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76e8…f211backed Kayla Day64c471.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab2…9decbacked Julieta Pareja48c429.94$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2227551.3%141 W · 134 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Julieta Pareja52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1929,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Kayla Day45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18053044.9%238 W · 292 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Kayla Day65c399.98$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9950147.7%239 W · 262 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…32b5backed Julieta Pareja52c351.76$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4730255.6%168 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed Julieta Pareja51c319$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8135153.8%189 W · 162 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Julieta Pareja51c318$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8232754.4%178 W · 149 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Julieta Pareja51c311$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3950655.5%281 W · 225 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Kayla Day64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19222442.9%96 W · 128 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe89c…9c72backed Julieta Pareja51c293$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5741554.7%227 W · 188 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Julieta Pareja51c291$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5951757.4%297 W · 220 L+31.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3131…91cdbacked Julieta Pareja52c287.98$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2230454.9%167 W · 137 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked Julieta Pareja51c284$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1628652.8%151 W · 135 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Julieta Pareja51c280.23$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0543352.9%229 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Julieta Pareja40c279.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2986635.5%307 W · 559 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…db95backed Julieta Pareja51c277$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7331952%166 W · 153 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Kayla Day51c216.11$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4238047.1%179 W · 201 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Julieta Pareja66c210.61$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.611,77348.6%861 W · 912 L+28.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Kayla Day64c205.38$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4429643.6%129 W · 167 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085d…c89ebacked Julieta Pareja39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1227454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Kayla Day52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028348.1%136 W · 147 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Julieta Pareja53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6810052%52 W · 48 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe116…6850backed Kayla Day48c181.46$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.11225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Julieta Pareja56c181$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.724,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Julieta Pareja49c169.2$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.854,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Julieta Pareja37c163$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.695450%27 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Julieta Pareja53c162$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3828454.2%154 W · 130 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Kayla Day64c160$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.444359.8%265 W · 178 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Kayla Day36c158.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9847842.5%203 W · 275 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…6d11backed Kayla Day64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017646.6%82 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Julieta Pareja51c149.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.881,37144.5%610 W · 761 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Julieta Pareja36c147$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.087,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…bd29backed Kayla Day54c141.78$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb978…fac0backed Julieta Pareja53c126.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.873540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6aca…e738backed Kayla Day38c125.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0110562.9%66 W · 39 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b7d…cb08backed Kayla Day59c119.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.243847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Kayla Day53c115.5$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.241,00154.9%550 W · 451 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5429…83c2backed Kayla Day22c114.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9319629.1%57 W · 139 L-0.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Julieta Pareja34c112.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.322,39438.4%920 W · 1,474 L+87.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Kayla Day60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6053043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Julieta Pareja50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5038051.6%196 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Julieta Pareja50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5087054.6%475 W · 395 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Julieta Pareja50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5027357.9%158 W · 115 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Kayla Day61c98.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021951.1%112 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Julieta Pareja50c97$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7289435.9%321 W · 573 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2471…4523backed Kayla Day29c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.312927.9%36 W · 93 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9077…9c3fbacked Kayla Day58c84.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.984751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Julieta Pareja53c81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2811858.5%69 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ace…23d1backed Kayla Day33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.753435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49fd…39c8backed Kayla Day66c74.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.263836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24f…18c1backed Kayla Day66c74.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x014f…7edbbacked Kayla Day50c70.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Kayla Day50c65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.646251.7%239 W · 223 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Kayla Day61c60.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.752,40451.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Julieta Pareja35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.145,19928.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L-18.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Kayla Day65c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2574547.4%353 W · 392 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Julieta Pareja59c49.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2623954.8%131 W · 108 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kayla Day60c48.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.937,74550.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L+93.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3196…7049backed Kayla Day46c43.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd5…d6a3backed Julieta Pareja56c42.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.961258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Julieta Pareja49c42.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.742,14237.3%799 W · 1,343 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4a…3026backed Kayla Day59c41.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5821353.5%114 W · 99 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Julieta Pareja39c40.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.035,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b2…9980backed Kayla Day35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421444.9%96 W · 118 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7373…fc38backed Julieta Pareja34c39.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.195836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Kayla Day48c38.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421,65744.2%733 W · 924 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe660…514fbacked Kayla Day55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010034%34 W · 66 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Kayla Day57c34.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.771,95843.7%856 W · 1,102 L-21.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…65ffbacked Kayla Day58c33.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Julieta Pareja63c33.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2213647.8%65 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.