Earnings · resolved market
Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e111af3005c5a70e34f1b2ac6fca2b11e1cce65ed45cff0f6a1ddb2b5ce12c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 1,796$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.59 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 73c | 1,508$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.32 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 21c | 1,344$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.2 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 80c | 1,001$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.84 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 33c | 780.69$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 440.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 76c | 382.56$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 350.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 17c | 334.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked No | 14c | 314.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…215ebacked No | 28c | 301.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…5c52backed No | 25c | 295.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 32c | 249.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 79c | 235.93$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 27c | 168$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 71c | 155.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 24c | 144.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 23c | 119.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 70c | 114.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 78c | 102.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed No | 34c | 95.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 22c | 92.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 88.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 82.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…0c73backed No | 24c | 72.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 30c | 65.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 21c | 65.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…290abacked No | 17c | 63.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…5274backed No | 27c | 59.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 35c | 56.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…3585backed Yes | 80c | 52.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…973fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 78c | 45.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352a…1ffdbacked Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…dc91backed Yes | 75c | 28.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…f85cbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…80c8backed Yes | 73c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.