MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e44694ef428ff2b6511217b85c40c8083e99ad0fa99971ee1656fea546b12eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 1,035$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.6 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 856.02$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 660.54$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.59 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 599.5$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 594$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.82 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 70c | 490.34$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 482$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 439.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 62c | 411.91$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 399.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 326.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 48c | 320.22$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 305.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 302$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…ef21backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 178$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 157.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 152.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 66c | 137.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Houston Astros | 66c | 134.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 71c | 112$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Miami Marlins | 16c | 105.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Houston Astros | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 96.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 89.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros | 43c | 88.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 85.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Houston Astros | 60c | 85.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Houston Astros | 71c | 70.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 64.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 36c | 46.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 43.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 39.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…292abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 27.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Houston Astros | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 19.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 19.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.