TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Miami Marlins, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins46c36,676$17,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,004.161,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Houston Astros53c14,465$7,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,798.7277053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins27c11,827$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.1710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5c…d8f2backed Houston Astros72c6,220$4,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.63070%21 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked Houston Astros54c5,656$3,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.2121644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Miami Marlins24c5,339$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.5595045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3501,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Miami Marlins47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros55c4,741$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.326,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f1b…f28abacked Houston Astros54c4,647$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.51844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins11c4,281$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.264,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked Houston Astros76c4,175$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.994153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Houston Astros68c3,829$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.6679442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Houston Astros53c3,364$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.2677647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Miami Marlins14c2,577$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3667132.4%23 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros60c2,553$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.878,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros53c2,351$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.973,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Miami Marlins43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins18c2,238$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Miami Marlins46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007950.6%40 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Miami Marlins47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006749.3%33 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Houston Astros73c1,808$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.7311759%69 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Miami Marlins47c1,777$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.2889153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Miami Marlins2c1,567$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1137032.7%121 W · 249 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Miami Marlins12c1,514$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.271,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Houston Astros53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70561947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros53c1,448$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.786,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Miami Marlins46c1,406$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.9411540%46 W · 69 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Miami Marlins47c1,200$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56424639%96 W · 150 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Miami Marlins30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013453%71 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Houston Astros54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46016753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Houston Astros53c999.95$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.9816848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b76backed Houston Astros54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9310750.5%54 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d52…3612backed Miami Marlins47c895.64$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros56c861$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.184,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Miami Marlins47c843.77$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.575054%27 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…e2c4backed Houston Astros73c842.47$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.471471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Houston Astros53c835.97$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.969453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Miami Marlins24c792.12$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.979538.9%37 W · 58 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins14c718.72$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.069,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins16c698.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.482,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Miami Marlins30c686.54$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9715751.6%81 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Houston Astros59c654.03$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.5773949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins31c640$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.44,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23e…e4a3backed Houston Astros54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5611750.4%59 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros54c540.7$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.721,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros56c529.53$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Miami Marlins23c499.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9861346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros54c494.05$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4b…d965backed Houston Astros54c450$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Miami Marlins47c438.94$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.326245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins36c417.22$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.783,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Miami Marlins46c410.32$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7532850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c57…e81abacked Miami Marlins47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1882853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Miami Marlins12c397.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7128749.5%142 W · 145 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4c…fa0cbacked Houston Astros74c378$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins3c350.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.346,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e1…cfdfbacked Miami Marlins3c327.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84136.6%15 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+43.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Houston Astros54c318$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1337348.3%180 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Houston Astros73c315.08$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9380159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Miami Marlins32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Miami Marlins28c300.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8521853.2%116 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Houston Astros53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14158652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros53c296.96$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.571,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins23c285.7$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.611,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros53c284.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.572,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Houston Astros56c275.5$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.221,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d8…9fdabacked Miami Marlins45c271.65$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.966254.8%34 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Miami Marlins47c265.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12528152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e68…3772backed Miami Marlins14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3524947%117 W · 132 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Miami Marlins18c247.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5537052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros75c247.49$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.742,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb5…6e63backed Houston Astros80c243.98$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.87467.6%50 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b33…d653backed Miami Marlins9c235.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17642.1%32 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b22…9431backed Miami Marlins47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.47360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Miami Marlins47c215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0523052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Miami Marlins47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed Miami Marlins47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012547.2%59 W · 66 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e13…3035backed Miami Marlins28c210.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Houston Astros73c210.78$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9158060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Miami Marlins47c210$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.739846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miami Marlins47c208.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9248147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x428d…8cb6backed Miami Marlins47c205.26$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.479753.6%52 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros54c203.72$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.713,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Houston Astros60c201.56$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.811,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed Miami Marlins47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946055%33 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Houston Astros57c199.69$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1840447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins46c194.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.661,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5430…fbbbbacked Miami Marlins47c191.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080855.3%447 W · 361 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b75…409ebacked Houston Astros54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.431549.2%155 W · 160 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9be…08bebacked Houston Astros54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.197749.4%38 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed Houston Astros54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1914452.8%76 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Miami Marlins16c177.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.846239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Houston Astros80c177.6$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.313355.6%74 W · 59 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Miami Marlins47c170.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8044245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed Houston Astros75c164.1$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4954945.4%249 W · 300 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb77e…2ac6backed Houston Astros78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins14c144.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.