MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4b9360b0ca815610e6ab4335d48663beaf39887fc2209c4ffed9d9d85ac037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 48c | 145,006$69,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,597.23 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 52c | 53,676$27,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,764.65 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 52c | 50,000$26,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,000 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 52c | 20,900$10,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,032 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 10,289$5,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,832.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked Under | 58c | 8,430$4,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,568.11 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 8,198$4,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,935.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 4,101$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,577$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 53c | 1,497$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.5 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 1,427$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 804.09$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 750.55$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 704.19$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 54c | 670.89$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.36 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.94 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 483.73$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.72 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 462$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 324.85$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 47c | 316.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 42c | 303.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 35c | 298.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 293.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.07 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 43c | 276.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 217.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 209.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fe…97aebacked Under | 53c | 208$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Under | 52c | 203.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 196.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 47c | 169.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 156.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 50c | 147$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 49c | 136.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 34c | 135.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 129$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 76c | 128.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 54c | 119.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Over | 37c | 107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 46c | 99.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 49c | 65.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 44c | 62.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Over | 46c | 60.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Over | 48c | 58.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 45c | 50.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 48.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Over | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 39c | 44.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 42c | 43.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 44c | 42.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Under | 54c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 56c | 40.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 51c | 37.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 41c | 34.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 33.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 47c | 32.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Over | 49c | 29.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.