TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,126 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners70c7,891$5,537 inWon+$2,353.198,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles26c6,466$1,668 inLost-$1,668.4811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles42c2,190$920 inLost-$919.891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners67c1,673$1,116 inWon+$557.6212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles34c882.34$300 inLost-$299.9987750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Seattle Mariners75c609.34$457 inWon+$152.714858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Baltimore Orioles25c423.32$104 inLost-$103.777126.8%19 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles30c227.87$68 inLost-$68.193,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners72c133$96 inWon+$37.241,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles34c113.55$39 inLost-$38.5617446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles33c108.3$36 inLost-$35.745,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles28c107.4$30 inLost-$30.079,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles27c95.33$26 inLost-$25.743,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Seattle Mariners75c54.05$41 inWon+$13.5114353.1%76 W · 67 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Seattle Mariners67c50$34 inWon+$16.4937451.3%192 W · 182 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles26c50$13 inLost-$138,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Seattle Mariners71c40.98$29 inWon+$11.9313357.9%77 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Baltimore Orioles31c38.91$12 inLost-$11.95328.3%15 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9603…de5ebacked Seattle Mariners75c28.6$21 inWon+$7.181973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Seattle Mariners73c24.88$18 inWon+$6.627152.1%37 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6413…8200backed Seattle Mariners73c18.69$14 inWon+$5.05785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.