MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00cd6a67b569c16fe7de90a0d4816e116a200d8f75c11e9fd1189449dfb4aa0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 3c | 28,000$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.99 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 1c | 11,120$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 4c | 10,831$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.93 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +363.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 4c | 8,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 1c | 8,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 7,327$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,931.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…a552backed Under | 7c | 3,200$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 2,362$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 2,173$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 32c | 2,085$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.2 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Under | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 11c | 1,762$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 17c | 1,548$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.53 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 26c | 1,533$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.02 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…c780backed Under | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +288.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…9cf9backed Under | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…bc0abacked Under | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 981.77$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 810.4$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.17 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 72c | 764.02$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 13c | 672.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 72c | 543.32$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 28c | 365.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 61c | 335.74$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 25c | 268.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 42c | 266$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x923d…8142backed Under | 11c | 245.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Under | 61c | 242.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 74c | 236$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 236$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 28c | 235.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 58c | 198$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Under | 51c | 194.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 14c | 121.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 114.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…b932backed Over | 13c | 109.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 21c | 97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 28c | 82.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…8574backed Under | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 80.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 30c | 66.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 22c | 65.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 70c | 65.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 61c | 63.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Under | 62c | 57.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Under | 27c | 46.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 65c | 38.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 35c | 32.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 71c | 32.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 60c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Over | 68c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 72c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 77c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.