TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,895 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles71c5,567$3,934 inWon+$1,633.048,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners29c4,887$1,414 inLost-$1,413.7711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles69c550.32$380 inWon+$170.65,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners25c507.18$129 inLost-$129.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners31c500$155 inLost-$1559,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners23c331.87$77 inLost-$77.172,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners23c243.91$56 inLost-$56.13,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles78c138$108 inWon+$30.432,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners22c131$29 inLost-$28.828,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners17c130.04$22 inLost-$22.263,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Baltimore Orioles72c70.22$51 inWon+$19.6670154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners29c45$13 inLost-$13.155,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Baltimore Orioles72c38.36$28 inWon+$10.7425260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Baltimore Orioles71c30$21 inWon+$8.724243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…90e5backed Baltimore Orioles78c27$21 inWon+$5.941546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick67cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles72c21.28$15 inWon+$5.961,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.