MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b69687c42004aa3d919980116a4253a6f3248e5f83cac4ccf0986731fc32991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 2,258$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 1,643$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 893.35$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.94 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 11c | 828.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 703.22$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 681.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 655.55$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 519.01$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 496.42$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.82 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 401.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 345.77$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 335$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 330.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 297.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 267.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 257.94$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 170.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 152.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 141.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 133$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 104$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 84.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 84.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 70.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 52.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 46.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 39.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 37.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 33.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…24b8backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.