MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccd26df216120b2443ab32c684bca76f5b2e4fb2fb232bbf05e87e5e7239bb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 7,116$5,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,275.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 6,415$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 5,409$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 4,697$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 1,534$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,244$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 522.67$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 494.67$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 462.12$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 407$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 350.82$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…f7debacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 317.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 285.9$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 259.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 256.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 242.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 207.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 156$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 131.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 125.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 122.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 120.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 114.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 91.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 80.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 78.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 53.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 49.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 49.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 45.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 42.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 40.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 38.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 36.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 36.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 36.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 35.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 34.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 23.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.