TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under51c75,919$38,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,5021,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over47c42,289$20,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,236.5510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under50c35,957$17,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,978.59749.5%48 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Over50c20,548$10,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,275.5827452.6%144 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c15,750$7,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8751,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Over53c15,000$7,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,071.9648451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over56c10,491$5,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,616.0185645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under49c7,195$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50039047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Under49c6,021$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950.3833554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over51c5,844$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.5547953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over28c5,285$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,821.058,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over47c5,153$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.58,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Over52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4008220.7%17 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under48c3,993$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.633,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Under48c3,050$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.8223948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Over51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over44c2,865$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.9312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c2,631$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.185,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Under45c2,224$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.230647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over34c1,756$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.981,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over53c1,753$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.9491252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over33c1,727$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.271,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over46c1,627$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.0711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over36c1,583$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.096,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over52c1,419$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.914,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over36c1,363$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.61,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over36c1,165$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.8397050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Over53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.7117546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Under47c1,068$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over51c980.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.661,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Under52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009450%47 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Over52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5439846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over46c921.34$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.173,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under47c745$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.1527249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Over36c545.36$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.0332450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3287750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under47c422.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.052,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over37c418.44$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6269447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over36c388.53$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.6679255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over36c388.5$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.641,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x995e…13aebacked Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.362729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Under50c359.53$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.772556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over45c327$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.424,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over59c322.7$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.315,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under48c300$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14563943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Over52c266.35$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8514858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over52c240$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over36c236.11$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1159549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Over57c236$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4817446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c205$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.91,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Over27c200.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5917752.5%93 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dcb…50fcbacked Over51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x523c…2c05backed Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9613053.1%69 W · 61 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.313461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Over29c187$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13221055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over42c182.81$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.629,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4415159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over39c146.15$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.151,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under61c138$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.731,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under46c126.24$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.045,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over56c118$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.975,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over52c113.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.288,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under48c102.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2257747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4810559%62 W · 43 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed Under48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9914643.2%63 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over52c99.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.492,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under47c93.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7472…c267backed Under56c91.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.481850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under48c90.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.631449.4%155 W · 159 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over51c87.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.783,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked Over34c87.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.659339.8%37 W · 56 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over36c79.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6766056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked Over36c77.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7225357.3%145 W · 108 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over36c75.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.521,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.677050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Under43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027646.7%129 W · 147 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over40c68.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.332,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Under44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021751.6%112 W · 105 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33d2…9ac2backed Under51c66.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.785440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Over29c63.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2728456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Under49c61.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3085949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over49c60.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3750954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under49c59.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3313441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa68d…eab5backed Under51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x348c…c8efbacked Under49c57.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4910438.5%40 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under68c56.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.814,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.662554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Over52c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4425850.4%130 W · 128 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under51c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.836,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under45c52.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.712,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Over30c50.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2337551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Over58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2111662.9%73 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f3…e1eebacked Over47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511256.3%63 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under47c49.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe997…f92ebacked Over53c46.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.769153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Over28c46.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3344651.6%230 W · 216 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e80…416dbacked Over47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.