MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc88cda08ef6c959b5148431a65198ad27dd59dbe7570755eceae0d1597bae4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 12,522$4,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,582.85 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 12,334$7,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,446.86 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 3,251$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 2,366$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 732.14$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 432.79$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.03 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 399$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.42 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 18c | 360.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 350.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 320.52$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 316.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 312.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 267$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 259.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 189$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 148.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 125.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Seattle Mariners | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 106.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 14c | 101.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 95.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 87.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 83.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 63.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 59.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 58.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 58.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 55.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 40.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 40.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 39.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…5fe3backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 32.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…618cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62f…f058backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.