Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ec1d25a42d05359f44e99b6acf21779942c36cd34e8ba5432c50c7570a2d812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 37c | 652.39$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.47 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 281.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 262.49$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 40c | 223.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 202.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 201.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…8206backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked Yes | 41c | 199.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 9c | 198.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked No | 62c | 175.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 64c | 167.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 165.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 41c | 135.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 125.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 116.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 88.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 62c | 74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 48.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 46.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 43c | 44.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 43.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 37c | 42.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 31c | 41.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 39.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 39.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 34.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 67c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 26.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 25.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 17.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.