Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb318fca305303d5d7d18fb111dbd72a1ace30eb0f89b4f570b60b0e375315f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 958.84$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 334.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 322.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 293$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 251.85$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 247.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 38c | 245.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 200.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 143.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 50c | 137.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 76c | 135.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 41c | 121.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 121$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 106.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 56c | 105.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 99.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 99.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 69c | 98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 57c | 92.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 43c | 92.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 57c | 87.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 86.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 54c | 84.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed Yes | 36c | 77.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 71c | 76.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 75.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 46c | 72.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 64c | 66.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 61.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 34c | 51.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 49c | 50.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 49.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 41c | 48.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 45c | 44.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 66c | 42.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 40.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 40.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 32.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…2c0cbacked Yes | 41c | 32.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 30.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 30.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 69c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed No | 62c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 25.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.