TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,834 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Spurs52c6,000$3,120 inLost-$3,12032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves48c3,381$1,623 inWon+$1,7582,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves48c2,500$1,200 inWon+$1,30050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves48c600$288 inWon+$3121,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c2…8c93backed Spurs52c576.92$300 inLost-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves48c489.79$236 inWon+$253.722,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3af…3f9cbacked Spurs52c480.77$250 inLost-$2502955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed Timberwolves48c200$96 inWon+$1041747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…6df9backed Timberwolves53c169.81$90 inWon+$79.816261.3%38 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Spurs52c144.23$75 inLost-$7510040%40 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs51c99$50 inLost-$50.4926545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Timberwolves53c51.13$27 inWon+$24.1322844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Spurs52c40.58$21 inLost-$21.185248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b62…1253backed Spurs51c40$20 inLost-$20.420756%116 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Spurs53c21.28$11 inLost-$11.2876653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd68f…6fdfbacked Timberwolves50c20$10 inWon+$104936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Spurs50c20$10 inLost-$1037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.