NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb4c42716e6e1dece108da0b1ef2b248f902764194ca6d0c5504d038f98d1d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 50c | 4,895$2,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.75 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 2,991$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.52 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 880.3$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.35 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 329 | 57.4%189 W · 140 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Under | 51c | 604.21$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.21 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 567.98$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.14 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 250.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…d21bbacked Over | 52c | 215.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…8b7fbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x052d…fcc1backed Over | 57c | 115.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 43c | 57.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 43c | 56.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Under | 55c | 54.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Under | 51c | 42.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…dfd5backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.