NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f43b87e42b6f48ffcb3f0d229e25414cd2183f2e47f85e95561abc721f16d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b3b…07f7backed Yes | 52c | 1,397$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.69 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 50c | 1,246$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.23 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 962.73$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.58 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes | 50c | 390$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Yes | 53c | 377.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.85 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…8b63backed Yes | 55c | 358.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 55c | 353$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.04 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 343.25$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.89 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…ba22backed Yes | 52c | 250.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…5672backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Yes | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 51c | 196.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 43c | 125.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 120.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 48c | 113.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 47c | 109.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 49c | 105.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked No | 50c | 102.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 47c | 80.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 75.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed No | 51c | 58.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 49c | 50.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 47c | 44.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Yes | 52c | 43.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6f8fbacked No | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 52c | 38.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390e…49cdbacked Yes | 53c | 35.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 52c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x394d…f8b1backed Yes | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 47c | 29.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.