Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f033ce18f4b8a8d909698f0bdc5763f9489b9eec7000b4274fff2664bed03ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f73…8d13backed Yes | 53c | 7,536$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 31c | 5,834$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.61 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 49c | 5,417$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.68 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 72c | 2,163$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.64 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 28c | 2,069$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.78 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -15.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…7a36backed Yes | 40c | 1,792$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 27c | 1,634$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.04 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 59c | 1,343$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.37 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 960.56$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.61 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 879.15$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.68 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 31c | 871$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.99 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 62c | 815.87$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.87 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 73c | 775.75$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 550$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 29c | 517.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.55 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 76c | 431.91$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 27c | 392.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 74c | 350.81$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 336$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked No | 67c | 297.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 73c | 275$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…068bbacked No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 27c | 230$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.9 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 225$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 73c | 216.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 74c | 134.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…0b5abacked Yes | 52c | 119.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…fb3fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…0bb1backed Yes | 30c | 83.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Yes | 38c | 79.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…1467backed Yes | 33c | 77.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 39c | 76.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…564ebacked Yes | 27c | 72.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 74c | 71.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 76c | 57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 73c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 73c | 49.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 43c | 49.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked Yes | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…ff36backed Yes | 76c | 42.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…c742backed Yes | 34c | 35.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed No | 74c | 29.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed No | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Yes | 79c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.