UFC · resolved market
Dos Santos vs. Ardelean
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x300c8560db8794139fd8b52082a3e87e910974158e987f6ca46459dc55ad85bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ardeleanof Dos Santos, Ardelean
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Ardelean | 35c | 9,500$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,174.99 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Dos Santos | 65c | 9,407$6,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,114.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Ardelean | 35c | 2,602$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.69 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…86f3backed Ardelean | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Dos Santos | 68c | 1,472$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Ardelean | 32c | 1,455$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.12 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Dos Santos | 43c | 1,271$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.38 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dos Santos | 65c | 1,233$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.55 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Ardelean | 77c | 1,017$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.75 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…c3a6backed Dos Santos | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dos Santos | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Ardelean | 33c | 986.11$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.69 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…96cdbacked Ardelean | 34c | 940$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Dos Santos | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Dos Santos | 65c | 766$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.9 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Ardelean | 27c | 599.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.99 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Dos Santos | 73c | 580.71$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.92 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Dos Santos | 11c | 531.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Ardelean | 69c | 500$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Ardelean | 33c | 441.53$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Dos Santos | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Ardelean | 33c | 301.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Dos Santos | 67c | 193.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Ardelean | 46c | 191$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Dos Santos | 70c | 170$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Dos Santos | 67c | 148.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Dos Santos | 67c | 147.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Dos Santos | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Ardelean | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Ardelean | 28c | 84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f5…cf24backed Dos Santos | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Ardelean | 31c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Dos Santos | 67c | 70.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…add3backed Dos Santos | 68c | 69.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Ardelean | 36c | 69.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Dos Santos | 73c | 68.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Dos Santos | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…97d7backed Ardelean | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…92e8backed Ardelean | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…a77bbacked Dos Santos | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…7788backed Dos Santos | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…10c6backed Ardelean | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…058abacked Dos Santos | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c62…e9f5backed Ardelean | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dos Santos | 54c | 55.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Dos Santos | 65c | 53.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Ardelean | 35c | 53.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…8decbacked Dos Santos | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…5ae4backed Dos Santos | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…92adbacked Dos Santos | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…431ebacked Ardelean | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…f010backed Dos Santos | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…29a1backed Ardelean | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…841fbacked Ardelean | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e6…297ebacked Ardelean | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…e487backed Ardelean | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…fdbabacked Ardelean | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Dos Santos | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…4d14backed Dos Santos | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…5fc8backed Ardelean | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e476backed Dos Santos | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324e…90d2backed Ardelean | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 35cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…f179backed Dos Santos | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…32c0backed Ardelean | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Dos Santos | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…814abacked Ardelean | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…3e68backed Dos Santos | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…948fbacked Dos Santos | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…b1b0backed Dos Santos | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Dos Santos | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…70b3backed Dos Santos | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…aed6backed Ardelean | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…2ea8backed Ardelean | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…e079backed Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…2ac1backed Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537f…539ebacked Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…3da8backed Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…6da4backed Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…626ebacked Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a63…adaebacked Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…d1d2backed Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…cd4cbacked Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8f…e3f8backed Dos Santos | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…137ebacked Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…4cb9backed Dos Santos | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…fbdcbacked Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6c…9aefbacked Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…1d4ebacked Ardelean | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…08a1backed Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1c27backed Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…f06fbacked Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4a…cebbbacked Ardelean | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…0a9abacked Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…915dbacked Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…925dbacked Dos Santos | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5439…a40bbacked Dos Santos | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5432…65adbacked Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…a263backed Ardelean | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Dos Santos | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…3603backed Ardelean | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dos Santos vs. Ardeleanthis page
- Filho vs. NascimentoNascimento won
- Gamrot vs. KleinGamrot won
- Goff vs. BrahimajBrahimaj won
- Holobaugh vs. LeavittLeavitt won
- Jacoby vs. LopesJacoby won
- Reese vs. TodorovićReese won
- Vieira vs. ChiassonVieira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.