TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Filho vs. Nascimento

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nascimentoof Filho, Nascimento
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd90c…a40fbacked Nascimento57c30,008$17,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,903.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a35…9feabacked Filho43c30,008$12,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,903.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf825…9275backed Nascimento57c28,155$16,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,106.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa3…3199backed Filho43c28,155$12,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,106.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Nascimento52c15,391$7,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,462.7714857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Filho49c7,323$3,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,588.0735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Filho48c7,030$3,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.342948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Filho48c7,000$3,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,353.324742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nascimento52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9203161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Filho46c2,175$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.4916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nascimento55c1,736$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.8112541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Filho11c1,267$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8222342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Nascimento54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.394665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Nascimento51c1,001$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.352751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Filho51c1,000$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.2435539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Nascimento52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0831…0e86backed Nascimento53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fb…109bbacked Nascimento53c835$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…9579backed Filho47c735$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32d3…2d11backed Filho47c725$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Nascimento53c671$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.3718560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Filho49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2946943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nascimento49c595$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4542042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Nascimento53c589.67$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.671729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Filho60c503.47$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.0811540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Filho45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22511844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Nascimento52c474.88$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.943441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Filho48c417$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1624356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nascimento40c384.3$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.5810443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Filho44c364.53$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6210452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Filho45c308$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.971428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc30…e76ebacked Filho47c275$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf725…136abacked Filho49c240.61$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.93754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Nascimento52c239$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.113240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Filho45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Filho49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Nascimento52c201.55$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.748749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Filho48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9639959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Filho49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984040%16 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Filho41c199.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8728743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Nascimento52c194$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.126443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Nascimento52c190.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.779744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Filho9c188$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.219418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfc…edb9backed Nascimento60c183.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.652035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1468…8ce2backed Nascimento53c165$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Filho40c164.65$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8619531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Nascimento59c154$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.149062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c7…a102backed Filho47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Nascimento56c139.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0956450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Filho41c137.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.533831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Nascimento51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Filho48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486851.5%35 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3361…05a8backed Nascimento57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cae…57a6backed Filho43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Filho49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4928043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Filho47c93.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.064833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Nascimento54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ab…f96bbacked Filho47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b6…3f09backed Nascimento57c70$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c28…a900backed Filho43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6f…0142backed Nascimento54c64.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb3…7a0ebacked Filho42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbb…0cbfbacked Filho43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3689…6ef8backed Nascimento57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x657f…eef2backed Nascimento58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Nascimento55c59.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277856.4%44 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Nascimento57c58.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255867.2%39 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb97…add3backed Nascimento58c50.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.361030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3518…3d5dbacked Nascimento57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e95…ffd7backed Filho43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3757…c3ccbacked Nascimento57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d7…25dabacked Filho44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e6b…81b4backed Nascimento57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d91…3aaebacked Nascimento57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3508…826fbacked Filho43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a0…2563backed Filho43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e35…b32fbacked Nascimento56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3454…d280backed Filho43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Nascimento51c47.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.355648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51e6…61bdbacked Nascimento57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d6…a258backed Filho43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b99…3035backed Filho42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6529…9bd7backed Nascimento58c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe79b…0fe0backed Nascimento53c43.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Nascimento58c42.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.886755.2%37 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32dc…cac5backed Filho48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…eb93backed Nascimento53c41.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Filho49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206360.3%38 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fe1…319fbacked Nascimento57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3766…dd00backed Nascimento57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d78…130bbacked Filho43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d29…1aecbacked Nascimento57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0e…c01abacked Filho43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d1…d7dbbacked Nascimento56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3785…3194backed Nascimento57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3390…d3a8backed Nascimento57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d1…bdf8backed Nascimento57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…dd70backed Nascimento58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a01…0d9abacked Filho51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47548%36 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a2…e403backed Filho43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.