UFC · resolved market

Reese vs. Todorović

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6289e51a7e241f601689f84e8770a5a9ebb27eb04c90f8e8115e52744b7990

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Reeseof Reese, Todorović
Resolved: May 31, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $63,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,823 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Reese	67c	10,555$7,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,483.15	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Todorović	33c	7,500$2,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,475	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Todorović	33c	4,909$1,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,618.96	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Reese	74c	4,904$3,616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,287.82	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	75cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Todorović	31c	4,772$1,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,479.19	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Reese	68c	4,051$2,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,285.81	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Todorović	35c	4,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.99	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+25%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Reese	75c	3,795$2,829 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$966.16	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcd…165cbacked Reese	69c	2,980$2,046 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$934.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Todorović	38c	2,864$1,079 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,079.25	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Reese	69c	2,500$1,725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$775	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Reese	65c	2,308$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$807.69	76	56.6%43 W · 33 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Todorović	32c	2,169$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.96	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Todorović	25c	2,000$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Todorović	24c	1,908$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.28	115	40%46 W · 69 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Todorović	27c	1,699$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.86	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Todorović	31c	1,396$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.74	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Reese	73c	1,370$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.9	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Todorović	27c	1,369$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.62	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Reese	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.25	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32d3…2d11backed Todorović	34c	1,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf54…5abbbacked Reese	66c	1,000$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Todorović	32c	937.5$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	121	34.7%42 W · 79 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Reese	67c	746.27$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.27	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Todorović	27c	658.42$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.14	143	55.9%80 W · 63 L	+7.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Reese	67c	597.01$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.01	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Reese	65c	580$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203	185	60%111 W · 74 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Reese	66c	502.28$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.2	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Todorović	27c	375.86$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.08	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Todorović	33c	370$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.1	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Reese	67c	370$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.1	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Todorović	31c	322.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.13	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Todorović	33c	316.05$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.66	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Reese	67c	300.39$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.39	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Todorović	32c	299.71$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.91	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Reese	67c	298.51$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.51	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Todorović	29c	289.13$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.25	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Reese	70c	285.71$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.71	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf725…136abacked Reese	69c	232.09$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.95	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d8f…bcebbacked Todorović	37c	223.42$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Todorović	29c	211.16$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.24	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Reese	66c	200$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Reese	74c	190$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.4	27	74.1%20 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	68cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Todorović	45c	180$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Reese	68c	160.71$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.71	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb724…fff6backed Todorović	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Todorović	36c	150$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	68	51.5%35 W · 33 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Todorović	31c	149.65$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.39	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Reese	68c	146.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.27	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Reese	69c	145$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.95	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Reese	70c	130.55$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.92	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Todorović	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-6.3wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Reese	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+4.0wins	+0.36per pick	55cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Todorović	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Todorović	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked Todorović	26c	99.57$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.89	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Reese	71c	97$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.13	90	62.2%56 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Reese	64c	80$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32dc…cac5backed Reese	65c	76.92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Todorović	32c	75$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Reese	68c	73.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.53	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Todorović	32c	73.53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.53	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Reese	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x659e…3772backed Todorović	29c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3d…d41bbacked Reese	71c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc0…09f1backed Reese	71c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641e…6b07backed Reese	71c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ab…9869backed Todorović	29c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa9…becabacked Todorović	29c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Reese	70c	60.98$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.43	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Todorović	31c	58.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31f6…0db0backed Todorović	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f79…f3d6backed Reese	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…d9dbbacked Todorović	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd9…b32bbacked Reese	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	63cpaid	+63%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…42ffbacked Reese	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3659…cad4backed Todorović	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Todorović	32c	46.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64dd…77d7backed Todorović	30c	45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b58…b271backed Reese	70c	45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	66cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Todorović	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Reese	69c	43.48$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.48	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbef4…dbcdbacked Todorović	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Reese	68c	36.78$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.77	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a01…0d9abacked Todorović	36c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	75	48%36 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117a…02ffbacked Reese	70c	28.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	67cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf9…432bbacked Reese	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55dd…70ccbacked Reese	74c	16.07$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b74…ae67backed Reese	68c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Reese vs. Todorovićthis page
Dos Santos vs. ArdeleanArdelean won
Filho vs. NascimentoNascimento won
Gamrot vs. KleinGamrot won
Goff vs. BrahimajBrahimaj won
Holobaugh vs. LeavittLeavitt won
Jacoby vs. LopesJacoby won
Vieira vs. ChiassonVieira won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Reese vs. Todorović

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event