TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Vieira vs. Chiasson

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vieiraof Vieira, Chiasson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,171 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d13…3752backed Chiasson53c36,255$19,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,215.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb0…d6b0backed Vieira47c36,255$17,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,215.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ff…8477backed Chiasson53c32,815$17,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,391.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1864…f296backed Vieira47c32,815$15,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,391.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef9…65c9backed Vieira52c32,765$17,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,727.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58e…683abacked Chiasson48c32,765$15,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,727.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Vieira72c5,457$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.346051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Chiasson57c5,293$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.734742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Vieira43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.993161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Vieira44c4,741$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.074833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Chiasson56c3,898$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2007656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vieira42c2,635$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.2718453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Chiasson56c2,409$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.1635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Vieira54c1,855$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.316951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Chiasson24c1,746$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.5314129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…e625backed Chiasson56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b7…9c41backed Vieira44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Chiasson63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Chiasson55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Chiasson34c785.45$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9528143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Vieira40c778.32$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.993050%15 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Chiasson60c750.33$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45035764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Chiasson7c706.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2511540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Vieira41c655.23$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.2321044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Chiasson62c460.35$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Vieira61c413.77$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.96946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf59…ff38backed Vieira43c393.38$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+99.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Chiasson9c375.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7923537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf725…136abacked Chiasson62c373.94$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.843754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Chiasson56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Vieira44c328$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6818560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Chiasson54c268.04$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2322342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Chiasson59c241.34$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3448749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Vieira60c224.49$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6810443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Vieira46c210$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.416851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Chiasson62c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7632545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Chiasson52c199.81$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6928743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Chiasson57c174.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Chiasson62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0646backed Vieira41c146.34$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.344153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb724…fff6backed Chiasson35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Chiasson50c140.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9814751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Chiasson64c140$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.66443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Vieira54c129$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7818145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Vieira41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Chiasson52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Vieira50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vieira38c99.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Chiasson50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Vieira45c94.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.621031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8338…8be1backed Vieira45c91.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Chiasson52c83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.169062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3357…ad82backed Vieira47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…3e98backed Chiasson53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Vieira48c78.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5710956%61 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Chiasson62c72.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0810040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Vieira56c71.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.519950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bad…6014backed Vieira48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32dc…e096backed Vieira47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…e8e9backed Chiasson53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6568…536cbacked Chiasson52c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Vieira40c66.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.015648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0367…74e4backed Chiasson54c66.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb97…add3backed Chiasson64c63.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…5b14backed Vieira44c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b46…f19dbacked Vieira48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d1…ba29backed Chiasson52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b6…85dfbacked Chiasson56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…9e32backed Chiasson52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c27…0f90backed Vieira44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…c0f2backed Vieira48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x557a…16f6backed Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38eb…b6a3backed Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3318…05c9backed Chiasson54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c53…5531backed Vieira46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vieira48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x531e…db38backed Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5337…8fcfbacked Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d28…9075backed Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3965…499abacked Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b57…5776backed Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5677…b90dbacked Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52db…9596backed Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53c6…1668backed Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1b…2fd1backed Chiasson56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cf…0b57backed Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39bb…9d75backed Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bad…eaddbacked Chiasson52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655f…e8e6backed Vieira48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcd…5377backed Vieira44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0c…04cbbacked Vieira49c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.951346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x367d…c9c9backed Vieira47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…1ec8backed Vieira44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dbb…aea2backed Chiasson56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…f961backed Vieira44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb8…ba30backed Chiasson52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6595…d894backed Vieira48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4b…712ebacked Chiasson56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3567…d055backed Chiasson53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5391…04a2backed Vieira44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.