NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30146acc0c0d99ee80928f61ebb901e1536da889ce443b446ac9ec58475f7d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Spurs, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 48c | 9,584$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 52c | 6,445$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,094.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Jazz | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 52c | 958.66$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs | 45c | 487.2$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 56c | 432.03$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Jazz | 30c | 425$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Jazz | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Spurs | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Spurs | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Jazz | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…fd21backed Jazz | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Spurs | 45c | 145.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jazz | 56c | 144.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Spurs | 46c | 139.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Jazz | 52c | 124.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 53c | 124.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Jazz | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Jazz | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 324 | 55.9%181 W · 143 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Spurs | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Jazz | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Jazz | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Jazz | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Jazz | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Jazz | 57c | 41.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz | 51c | 40.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Jazz | 44c | 38.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…114dbacked Jazz | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 335 | 47.2%158 W · 177 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 38c | 33.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Spurs | 46c | 31.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Jazz | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Spurs | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jazz | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Jazz | 57c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Spurs | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jazz vs. SpursSpurs won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Jazz won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.