NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa38a3a4861cacdc29639b14ed8a7cd4abb62bcbe1eae29d0e8a778f90eb017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Spurs, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Jazz | 46c | 6,767$3,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,654.18 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 54c | 5,735$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 44c | 5,579$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 56c | 4,069$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…e862backed Spurs | 54c | 3,323$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…e10dbacked Spurs | 54c | 3,047$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 50c | 2,646$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.22 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Jazz | 58c | 1,500$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.99 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Spurs | 47c | 1,356$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.14 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ed8cbacked Jazz | 46c | 1,257$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…dff0backed Jazz | 46c | 1,195$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…0033backed Jazz | 46c | 1,132$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…58d3backed Jazz | 46c | 1,018$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Jazz | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Spurs | 45c | 950$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.5 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…81b0backed Jazz | 46c | 934$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Spurs | 54c | 867.07$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.22 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Jazz | 47c | 843.76$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.19 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…85bebacked Jazz | 46c | 834$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Spurs | 54c | 649.97$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.49 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Spurs | 55c | 649.09$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Spurs | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 53c | 536.73$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Jazz | 47c | 441.74$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Spurs | 46c | 434.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 54c | 378.47$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.95 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Spurs | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Spurs | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Spurs | 54c | 147.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Spurs | 49c | 119.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…7061backed Spurs | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Spurs | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Jazz | 46c | 90.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Spurs | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Jazz | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Jazz | 69c | 75.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Jazz | 48c | 59.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Jazz | 52c | 59.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Jazz | 45c | 55.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Spurs | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Jazz | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Jazz | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…70f4backed Jazz | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3000backed Jazz | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Spurs | 54c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Jazz | 46c | 35.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Jazz | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Spurs | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Jazz | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 51c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Jazz | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Jazz | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jazz vs. SpursSpurs won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Jazz won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.