SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30799895739f8dc83c7136880a1f53c150f5a867a7fc09860f876319c17c7f10

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,829 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7066…50e5backed Over	62c	4,701$2,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,923.78	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.7wins	-0.54per pick	74cpaid	-74%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	39c	3,540$1,369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,171.06	448	37.7%169 W · 279 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over	54c	2,270$1,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,219.06	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-4.9wins	-0.21per pick	47cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Under	61c	1,978$1,206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.75	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed Over	22c	1,819$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.18	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+6.4wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+63.6%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Under	58c	1,401$807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$593.76	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	63cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under	38c	1,037$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.03	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	+8.6wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+16%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bf5…2307backed Under	52c	920.31$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.48	35	71.4%25 W · 10 L	+5.9wins	+0.17per pick	55cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	76c	878.46$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.84	76	56.6%43 W · 33 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	40c	845.9$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.91	517	46.2%239 W · 278 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	70c	839.75$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.93	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcea…545bbacked Under	75c	751.44$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.76	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	67cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1101…dfd5backed Under	54c	639.07$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.07	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over	53c	578.64$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.06	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Over	2c	560.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	33c	544.68$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.76	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	60c	500.5$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.56	799	35.3%282 W · 517 L	-36.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…bc30backed Over	79c	442.97$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	15c	439.6$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.94	637	48.4%308 W · 329 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under	46c	438.9$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.19	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over	57c	386$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.64	78	66.7%52 W · 26 L	+5.9wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5f6…73fabacked Over	64c	359.45$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	60cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Under	43c	348$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.36	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Over	36c	272.58$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.92	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Under	74c	270.27$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.27	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Under	60c	265.83$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.83	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Under	72c	237.76$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.86	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb7b…eac6backed Over	42c	235.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x834c…593abacked Over	26c	223.21$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.22	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over	58c	210$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.8	55	65.5%36 W · 19 L	+9.8wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	+31%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x961c…9d72backed Under	68c	203.9$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.75	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	32c	190.14$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.99	329	31.9%105 W · 224 L	-26.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd599…c994backed Under	62c	189.93$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.22	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	37c	188.27$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.49	1,141	35.4%404 W · 737 L	-15.0wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Under	49c	179.6$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.6	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	16c	151.16$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	303	45.9%139 W · 164 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	43c	144.97$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.41	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over	41c	139.7$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.42	330	57.6%190 W · 140 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	26c	124.95$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.96	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	23c	119.21$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.08	402	53.7%216 W · 186 L	+22.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Over	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	179	7.8%14 W · 165 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Under	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	38c	88.97$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	428	50.2%215 W · 213 L	+25.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	35c	82.75$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.07	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaefc…f599backed Over	55c	82.32$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Over	40c	79.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	56c	78.3$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.46	186	48.9%91 W · 95 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Under	36c	68$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.52	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc155…e36bbacked Under	52c	64.23$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.74	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under	73c	63.67$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.96	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x660e…76ccbacked Over	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ec…81bebacked Under	28c	51.71$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.23	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	42c	51.13$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.78	261	45.6%119 W · 142 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Over	33c	47.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0984…296bbacked Under	53c	47.2$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.23	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Over	40c	45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under	29c	42$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf676…b039backed Over	44c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69a6…7a2cbacked Under	51c	37.83$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a7…9725backed Over	57c	35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4078…eed8backed Over	61c	34.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	71cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Over	58c	34.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-4.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e35…3655backed Over	44c	32.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…cc57backed Under	62c	32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c2…b0c4backed Under	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.22per pick	65cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e47…7728backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under	36c	29$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…6c79backed Under	70c	17.2$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.09	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	71cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 4.5this page
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5Under won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 1.5Over won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 2.5Over won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5Over won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 5.5Under won
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 2.5Over won
Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
Spread: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-1.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
Spread: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-2.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event