Champions League · resolved market
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4722176eb97f844d890da1449a8614cc23579cd5775bb0947d7298beff23a932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Under | 2c | 5,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,721$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 65c | 2,053$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 35c | 1,000$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.53 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.8wins | +0.36per pick | 45cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 75c | 816.71$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 31c | 506.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 208 | 32.2%67 W · 141 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 29c | 439$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 386.39$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.11 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 47c | 382.14$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 33c | 342.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 33c | 302.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 273.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 70c | 265$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.09 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 58c | 242.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 224.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 221.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 36c | 197.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +58%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 193.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 44c | 173.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 21c | 165$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 157.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…54f2backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 37c | 129.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 33c | 118.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…5993backed Under | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 67c | 115$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 66c | 114$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 108.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 36c | 99.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 36c | 91.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 71c | 91.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 87.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Under | 60c | 84.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…f0a6backed Over | 58c | 84.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 242 | 45.9%111 W · 131 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 35c | 70.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 58c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…eed8backed Over | 79c | 67.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 31c | 57.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…36fabacked Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 53.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 49c | 51.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 37c | 38.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 28c | 36.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…f1b8backed Under | 48c | 35.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 32.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 28.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Under | 47c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 60c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Over | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Under | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5this page
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5Under won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
- Spread: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-1.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
- Spread: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-2.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.