Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Daria Kasatkina vs Jaqueline Cristian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cf2b3ecf439ba73f5affc457c3a800d3612874b7cbe33e21d7fa852b517f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cristianof Kasatkina, Cristian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cristian | 57c | 6,406$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.69 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kasatkina | 48c | 4,776$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.72 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Cristian | 34c | 4,356$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.6 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kasatkina | 49c | 2,910$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.88 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Kasatkina | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kasatkina | 63c | 1,512$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.05 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Kasatkina | 59c | 1,215$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kasatkina | 63c | 1,192$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Cristian | 43c | 1,120$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Cristian | 39c | 1,005$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cristian | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Cristian | 42c | 791$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.51 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Kasatkina | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cristian | 47c | 607.94$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.57 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Kasatkina | 64c | 604.95$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…9b53backed Kasatkina | 58c | 554.3$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cristian | 50c | 517.05$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.29 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Cristian | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 780 | 52.7%411 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Cristian | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Kasatkina | 59c | 340.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,836 | 48.4%889 W · 947 L | -32.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cristian | 46c | 339.22$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.34 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Kasatkina | 58c | 306.9$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cristian | 41c | 250.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Kasatkina | 56c | 233.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cristian | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Cristian | 34c | 222.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.13 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Kasatkina | 68c | 210$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Kasatkina | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 636 | 50.3%320 W · 316 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Kasatkina | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Kasatkina | 54c | 188.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kasatkina | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Cristian | 41c | 183$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Cristian | 43c | 168$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kasatkina | 57c | 157.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Kasatkina | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kasatkina | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Kasatkina | 52c | 122.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Kasatkina | 55c | 108.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Cristian | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Cristian | 34c | 96.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Cristian | 40c | 93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Kasatkina | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 268 | 33.6%90 W · 178 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…9ff7backed Kasatkina | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kasatkina | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Cristian | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cristian | 41c | 69.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Kasatkina | 73c | 68.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Kasatkina | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Kasatkina | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Cristian | 44c | 57.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cristian | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cristian | 68c | 46.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Kasatkina | 23c | 45.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Kasatkina | 59c | 41.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cristian | 44c | 38.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Kasatkina | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Cristian | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Kasatkina | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…2e91backed Kasatkina | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cristian | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Cristian | 44c | 32.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Kasatkina | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Cristian | 66c | 27.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Kasatkina | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Kasatkina | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 484 | 52.5%254 W · 230 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…772abacked Kasatkina | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…d510backed Kasatkina | 58c | 20.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4045backed Cristian | 61c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Kasatkina | 65c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Daria Kasatkina vs Jaqueline Cristianthis page
- Kasatkina vs. Cristian: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Kasatkina vs. Cristian: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Kasatkina vs. Cristian: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs CristianCristian won
- Set Handicap: Kasatkina (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5)Cristian won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.