MLB · resolved market
Brewers vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x314181da04d1390cd4128319075c54818268e0b688a7fce04c963c538fc8b0d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Brewers, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Twins | 0c | 17,089$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 53c | 9,252$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Brewers | 59c | 4,909$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.43 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Brewers | 63c | 3,535$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.07 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Twins | 61c | 3,260$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.04 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 58c | 3,013$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.6 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Brewers | 63c | 2,666$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.72 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Twins | 58c | 2,512$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.41 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Twins | 58c | 2,400$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.94 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Brewers | 45c | 2,228$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.26 | 286 | 46.5%133 W · 153 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Brewers | 39c | 2,218$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.03 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…3c7ebacked Twins | 60c | 2,186$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…6b19backed Brewers | 40c | 2,186$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…ef4bbacked Twins | 60c | 1,702$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f167backed Brewers | 40c | 1,700$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Brewers | 48c | 1,672$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.32 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Twins | 2c | 1,600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Brewers | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Brewers | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…07e0backed Brewers | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Twins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Brewers | 41c | 999.97$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.98 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Brewers | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.38 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Brewers | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Brewers | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Brewers | 57c | 454.54$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Brewers | 42c | 435.71$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.71 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Twins | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Brewers | 43c | 423$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…15c7backed Twins | 59c | 420.34$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Twins | 45c | 404.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Twins | 45c | 369$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.05 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Brewers | 41c | 364.12$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a1c2backed Brewers | 56c | 359.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Brewers | 47c | 338.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Twins | 60c | 333.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Twins | 59c | 306.39$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Twins | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 254 | 16.1%41 W · 213 L | -15.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Brewers | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Twins | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Brewers | 41c | 243.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Brewers | 41c | 235.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 59c | 168.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 40c | 162.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Brewers | 41c | 144$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked Brewers | 68c | 137.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Brewers | 42c | 137.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 59c | 120.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Brewers | 68c | 108.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Brewers | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Brewers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…6775backed Brewers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Brewers | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Brewers | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Brewers | 41c | 96.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 141 | 46.8%66 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Twins | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…d086backed Twins | 58c | 68.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 42c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Twins | 50c | 64.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…0e11backed Twins | 55c | 62.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 429 | 55%236 W · 193 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c5…85f8backed Brewers | 42c | 60.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…96d1backed Twins | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Brewers | 62c | 49.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…3487backed Brewers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b9…0218backed Brewers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Brewers | 41c | 41.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Brewers | 41c | 40.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Brewers | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…1d71backed Brewers | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Brewers | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Twins | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Brewers | 40c | 27.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Brewers | 42c | 25.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…e323backed Twins | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Twins | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Brewers | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6876…6e07backed Twins | 60c | 17.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.