Us Politics · resolved market
Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31d3c34d6f4d53846af8e1e98880c0b8d4f6885527eb76aa673c8a3d60f765ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 7,882$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 15c | 7,610$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 2,085$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 1,792$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 28c | 697.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 604.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 433.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 23c | 364.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.57 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 33c | 362.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.97 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 347.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 4c | 330$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 10c | 328.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 275.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 12c | 223.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…9ee4backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…09a8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 13c | 80.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 56.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.