MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3266fe09820ae84bbf58ce72be18101e802ba5a8765260830ab7dfe3a49f2c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Cincinnati Reds, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 18,776$8,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,073.88 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 57c | 13,433$7,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,776.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 68c | 11,169$7,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 9,574$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 57c | 2,023$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 61c | 1,977$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 57c | 581.1$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 374.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 272.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics | 58c | 239.14$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 57c | 238$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 232.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 60c | 219$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Athletics | 57c | 158.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Athletics | 57c | 141$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 138.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 131$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Athletics | 58c | 96.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics | 59c | 84.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 84.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Athletics | 61c | 61.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 59c | 53.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 51.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Athletics | 66c | 48.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 45.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 45.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 41.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Athletics | 69c | 40.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Athletics | 57c | 35.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Athletics | 61c | 27.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Athletics | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.