MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6536484a71ab1818ef9acc406838c9f340e1ca1e72f67cfa1efc643d8d10c336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 7,908$4,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 6,080$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 5,297$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 5,208$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 52c | 4,069$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.09 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 3,051$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 3,034$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.47 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 45c | 2,775$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.73 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 48c | 2,228$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.55 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 50c | 2,155$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.35 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,923$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 54c | 1,448$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.96 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 1,020$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.35 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 52c | 957$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.36 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 843.32$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.79 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 55c | 714.05$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.73 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 50c | 506.7$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 399.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 398.12$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 354$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 53c | 305.09$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 299$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.51 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 49c | 244.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 218$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 181.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 181$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 53c | 152.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 55c | 152.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 122.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 70c | 98.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 46c | 88.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…040fbacked Over | 54c | 84.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 47c | 84.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 53c | 83.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 49c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Over | 48c | 55.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 54.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 53c | 48.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 28c | 44.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 49c | 42.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 36.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 55c | 32.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Over | 51c | 29.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 28.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 66c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 50c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 56c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 53c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 69c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 55c | 19.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 19.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 66c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.