Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3490a5b683a005e8b0ec02a5d354521e562c8f1ed4f3b2a05a70521e4c47acce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Berrettini, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Berrettini | 42c | 1,428$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.75 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Berrettini | 38c | 1,329$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Arnaldi | 59c | 1,004$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.39 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arnaldi | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Arnaldi | 52c | 995.35$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.45 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Berrettini | 47c | 739.25$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.96 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Berrettini | 58c | 695.87$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arnaldi | 67c | 663.42$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.93 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Berrettini | 47c | 640.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Berrettini | 36c | 551.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…5fb9backed Arnaldi | 43c | 529.82$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Arnaldi | 58c | 511.61$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.11 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…e4ddbacked Berrettini | 38c | 501.79$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arnaldi | 64c | 500$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…30fbbacked Arnaldi | 22c | 434.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arnaldi | 43c | 428.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.04 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a03…0b5ebacked Berrettini | 46c | 421.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed Berrettini | 48c | 419.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Berrettini | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arnaldi | 48c | 338$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.69 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…3176backed Berrettini | 57c | 328.07$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Arnaldi | 41c | 316.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.42 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Arnaldi | 41c | 290$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…e48ebacked Arnaldi | 67c | 281.11$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Berrettini | 42c | 274.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Arnaldi | 44c | 265.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…4d65backed Arnaldi | 33c | 241.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arnaldi | 65c | 225.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Berrettini | 56c | 222$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Arnaldi | 44c | 212.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Berrettini | 56c | 206.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…f7debacked Berrettini | 57c | 201.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed Berrettini | 45c | 197.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Berrettini | 44c | 176.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Berrettini | 37c | 168$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…717dbacked Arnaldi | 58c | 167.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arnaldi | 40c | 157.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Berrettini | 57c | 129.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9335backed Arnaldi | 11c | 128.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Berrettini | 38c | 127.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Berrettini | 31c | 118.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Arnaldi | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Berrettini | 54c | 103.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Arnaldi | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Arnaldi | 56c | 92.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed Berrettini | 57c | 91.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…1d64backed Arnaldi | 55c | 90.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Berrettini | 31c | 90.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed Arnaldi | 44c | 77.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Berrettini | 43c | 69.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Arnaldi | 73c | 68.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Arnaldi | 52c | 66.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Arnaldi | 41c | 63.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Berrettini | 47c | 62.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Arnaldi | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4803backed Arnaldi | 44c | 59.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Berrettini | 66c | 57.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b1…3b96backed Arnaldi | 58c | 55.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Berrettini | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Arnaldi | 70c | 52.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Arnaldi | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Arnaldi | 52c | 47.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…e9c2backed Arnaldi | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffbb…0538backed Berrettini | 45c | 41.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Arnaldi | 62c | 35.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Berrettini | 59c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Berrettini | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Berrettini | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arnaldi | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…4d03backed Berrettini | 66c | 32.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Berrettini | 31c | 32.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Berrettini | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Berrettini | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Berrettini | 59c | 29.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…f481backed Arnaldi | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Berrettini | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…fc07backed Arnaldi | 55c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 150 | 46%69 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Berrettini | 55c | 18.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Arnaldi | 56c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldithis page
- Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.