World Politics · resolved market
Will Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c84a5ad65b9dfff84756cb3f7e15400fd141a09f6ac8d0a298267c8259b2bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 22c | 6,407$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.03 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 77c | 5,350$4,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,198$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.16 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…15f9backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,184$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.52 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 15c | 873.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…4cf5backed Yes | 14c | 867.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 22c | 650.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…e696backed Yes | 17c | 636.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 17c | 572.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…edd9backed Yes | 19c | 564.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 24c | 532.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked Yes | 31c | 513.31$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…894cbacked Yes | 25c | 350.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 26c | 331.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 326.7$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 27c | 301.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked No | 78c | 296$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 256.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 35c | 230.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 22c | 226.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…e1d1backed Yes | 21c | 190.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 73c | 176.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 75c | 136$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 13c | 96.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…99d8backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…4412backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Yes | 25c | 63.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…26c9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 73c | 39.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will Motoristé get less than 3% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will Motoristé get more than 9% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.