Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e258ce73f42c1549dba85752cf4474532aac1f1070701e0a71969f00bf52cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beijing Guoan FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 49c | 4,511$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.08 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Beijing Guoan FC | 69c | 3,029$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…9971backed Beijing Guoan FC | 26c | 1,412$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 50c | 1,403$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Beijing Guoan FC | 48c | 1,351$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.72 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Beijing Guoan FC | 26c | 766.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.1 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 34c | 489.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 19c | 269.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 22c | 252.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 25c | 233.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 58c | 161.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Beijing Guoan FC | 77c | 161.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 40c | 150.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 65c | 139.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Beijing Guoan FC | 79c | 126.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 21c | 124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Beijing Guoan FC | 51c | 122.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Beijing Guoan FC | 79c | 118.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 72c | 117.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 51c | 104.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Beijing Guoan FC | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Beijing Guoan FC | 72c | 88.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Beijing Guoan FC | 67c | 54.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Beijing Guoan FC | 76c | 47.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Beijing Guoan FC | 32c | 42.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 71c | 41.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Beijing Guoan FC | 74c | 36.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Beijing Guoan FC | 47c | 33.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Beijing Guoan FC | 54c | 32.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…2d86backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 72c | 28.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 77c | 24.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…fcc6backed Beijing Guoan FC | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 74c | 15.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…4b73backed Beijing Guoan FC | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.