Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5434e9686fd94c899524117af6f119619fcf304fdd5ce7e5524eb1ec9d368c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 17c | 47,020$7,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,908.24 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 9,893$7,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.35 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 16c | 1,863$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.13 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 80c | 1,705$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.65 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 69c | 1,630$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.3 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 18c | 1,134$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 80c | 1,022$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 78c | 898.44$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 69c | 543$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.33 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 79c | 369.58$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 5c | 297.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +8.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 32c | 279.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 78c | 231.15$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 34c | 176.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 15c | 175.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 68c | 144.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Under | 15c | 125.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…805cbacked Under | 30c | 98.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 69c | 94.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…8e1abacked Under | 34c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 32c | 80.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8249…9169backed Under | 32c | 71.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…6e2fbacked Over | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…b521backed Under | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 69c | 60.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Over | 76c | 57.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…5804backed Under | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…2b54backed Over | 60c | 54.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Under | 34c | 54.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…935cbacked Under | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…e08dbacked Under | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…a949backed Over | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…1580backed Over | 69c | 52.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…7a33backed Under | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…0246backed Over | 62c | 51.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 70c | 50.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…f7e7backed Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…ca6dbacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…5b65backed Over | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…9478backed Under | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…0662backed Under | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…8bd7backed Over | 60c | 45.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…9bbdbacked Over | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd943…39eabacked Under | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 80c | 42.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…9649backed Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1644…2e9abacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 76c | 36.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…a43cbacked Over | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…3c11backed Under | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6603…a04dbacked Over | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 80c | 30.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe2…3c09backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Over | 78c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…040ebacked Over | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Over | 69c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 67c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.