NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e6c47023fe505ab4f335892fbc0e7ae08e9307d183260218908689e69e11a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c5…fb0fbacked Oilers | 40c | 7,569$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,568.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Oilers | 39c | 3,590$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.74 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Ducks | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Ducks | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Ducks | 60c | 1,948$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.37 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…c347backed Ducks | 14c | 1,399$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks | 60c | 1,312$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.47 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Ducks | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Ducks | 60c | 1,100$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oilers | 78c | 1,019$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.88 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Ducks | 60c | 1,000$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Ducks | 22c | 445.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 61c | 421.35$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.09 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Ducks | 61c | 379.08$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.24 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…82e8backed Ducks | 62c | 343.03$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Oilers | 38c | 340.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.29 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Ducks | 51c | 334$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 62c | 323.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Oilers | 39c | 323.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…8410backed Oilers | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…4b3abacked Oilers | 39c | 255.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 45c | 248.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Ducks | 61c | 187.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Ducks | 62c | 167.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Ducks | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Ducks | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Ducks | 62c | 153.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Ducks | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…e62abacked Ducks | 16c | 140.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ducks | 27c | 134.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Oilers | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Oilers | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Oilers | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Ducks | 21c | 90.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ducks | 25c | 89.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 61c | 83.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Ducks | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Ducks | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ducks | 61c | 71.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Ducks | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Ducks | 16c | 63.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Oilers | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…e920backed Oilers | 38c | 58.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb551…a2f3backed Oilers | 39c | 52.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…1782backed Oilers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed Oilers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Oilers | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Oilers | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Oilers | 80c | 43.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…958cbacked Oilers | 42c | 40.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Oilers | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Oilers | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Ducks | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Ducks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Ducks | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Ducks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3e…7547backed Ducks | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Oilers | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Oilers | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Ducks | 59c | 26.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Oilers | 76c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Oilers | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Oilers | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.