NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89912b51a5282dd5104e0fbcce75abeef2124ccf9b23ff878aaf2e068283a5db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 68c | 8,529$5,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,802.86 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 6,493$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,579.79 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 30c | 3,301$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 42c | 2,625$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.26 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 43c | 2,519$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 2,170$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.63 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 29c | 1,761$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.39 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 1,381$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.8 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 30c | 1,090$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.18 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 59c | 1,011$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.45 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 72c | 971.37$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.8 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 74c | 679.97$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.18 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 43c | 575.62$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.1 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 60c | 540$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 41c | 481.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 41c | 476.49$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.13 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 41c | 437.25$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.98 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 59c | 432.58$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 59c | 415.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.41 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 21c | 395.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.58 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 59c | 382.92$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.92 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 72c | 333.88$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 328.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…42cbbacked Under | 29c | 314.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 32c | 302.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…162fbacked Over | 38c | 260.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 41c | 253.12$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…6359backed Over | 59c | 247.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 28c | 217.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 76c | 214.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.53 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6b…d168backed Under | 28c | 167.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 29c | 165.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Over | 60c | 163.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…ed83backed Under | 31c | 148.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 147.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 28c | 144$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 58c | 133.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…64dabacked Under | 30c | 128.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 72c | 126.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 60c | 105.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Over | 60c | 103.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…e4bfbacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 42c | 99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 42c | 98.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Over | 60c | 95.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 69c | 91.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…0df3backed Over | 61c | 82.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +150%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 36c | 76.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 71c | 69.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 61c | 60.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed Under | 45c | 47.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Over | 61c | 47.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 68c | 41.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Under | 40c | 39.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 61c | 36.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 59c | 32.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed Over | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 59c | 29.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa671…f693backed Over | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Under | 54c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 75c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.