NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa43b38f9fb7256fa75edbbd5dcab135936abc306b2ca4f27529f4248bddd2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.97 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Over | 70c | 2,565$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.63 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 7c | 1,175$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.43 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 74c | 1,172$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.58 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 72c | 1,019$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.46 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 19c | 1,004$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.19 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Over | 80c | 930$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 70c | 796.67$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.67 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 26c | 660$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.63 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 23c | 536.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.26 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 418.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 7c | 380.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.38 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 74c | 280$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…2a6fbacked Under | 37c | 259.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…0a12backed Under | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 63c | 247.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 21c | 207.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.94 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 28c | 190.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 16c | 181.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Over | 68c | 175$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Over | 72c | 173.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…92d2backed Over | 73c | 166.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Over | 77c | 152.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Under | 31c | 139$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…e920backed Under | 14c | 137.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Over | 72c | 102.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 28c | 101.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 29c | 97.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 96.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 28c | 82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed Under | 19c | 79.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 25c | 74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 34c | 73.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Under | 26c | 59.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 37c | 50.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 32c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 69c | 40.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…1487backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 80c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 72c | 37.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…e701backed Over | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Over | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.