Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35676a53d5f89d3e4fdccd5b20874ebf2577bceca91d05fdec6a58a0ffdd36bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 62c | 2,209$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 822.89$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 545.47$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 544.71$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 380.87$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 36c | 342.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 338.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 72c | 337.79$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 315.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 38c | 263.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 38c | 263.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 248.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 228.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 199.68$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 189.43$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 150.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 137.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 134.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 127.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 33c | 124.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 121.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 107$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 91.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 90.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 90.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 81.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 80.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 34c | 79.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 76.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 64.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 63.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 38c | 63.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 65c | 62.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 61.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 57.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 55.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 67c | 48.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 45.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 43.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 39.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 38.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 38.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 36.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 36.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 34.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 33.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 40c | 32.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 31.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 29.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…5d1bbacked No | 75c | 24.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 80c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7e…0f89backed No | 74c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 71c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 19.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…2d3abacked No | 73c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.