Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a5bfd9a8bc163a9110f0343122ce8e784fdc8bedc9d32350f0d88a50f70512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 865.8$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 51c | 539.8$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.3 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 491.23$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 469.46$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 368$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 333.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 328.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 51c | 328.96$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.07 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 328.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 211.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 49c | 208.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 50c | 204.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 201.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 176.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 49c | 172.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 9c | 167.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 160.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 66c | 151.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 58c | 148.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 134.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 129$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 31c | 111.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 110.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 103.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 98.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 74c | 96.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 96.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 96.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 59c | 93.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 66c | 90.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 88.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 59c | 84.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 82.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 28c | 81.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 77.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 73.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 55c | 72.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 69.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 72c | 64.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 61.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 68c | 58.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 58.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 52c | 56.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 44c | 51.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…ee88backed Yes | 49c | 50.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 49.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 21c | 48.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 48.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…d2cebacked No | 53c | 47.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…fe1dbacked No | 54c | 46.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 46.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 44.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 43.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 43.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 28c | 41.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 34c | 39.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…f608backed Yes | 62c | 38.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…456dbacked Yes | 60c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 51c | 36.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 35.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 60c | 35.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 48c | 34.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 45c | 34.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…3489backed No | 39c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…c35fbacked No | 52c | 34.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 34.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…6c4dbacked No | 41c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 33.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…d3bebacked No | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…e5b1backed Yes | 48c | 31.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 46c | 30.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 29.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 54c | 28.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 50c | 26.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…d7b1backed Yes | 59c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 57c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed Yes | 55c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 66c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.