Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3576ddc98a49c4d575237edf66487d76d148bb9428a8905331bf44566e0d17b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,203$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 16c | 510$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 443.16$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 26c | 320.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 319.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 312.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 265.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 28c | 264.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 50c | 256.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 220.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 69c | 218.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.56 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 208.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 14c | 188.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 17c | 183.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 172.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 168.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 167.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 162.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 148.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 148.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 68c | 146.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 16c | 144.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 46c | 139$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 137$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 24c | 134.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 132.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 10c | 124.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 75c | 123.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 28c | 106.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 103.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 59c | 100.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 99.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 79c | 85.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…cb18backed Yes | 43c | 81.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 28c | 81.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 78.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 26c | 66.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 23c | 62.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 58.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 55.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 53.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed No | 73c | 49.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 38c | 44.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 25c | 42.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 63c | 41.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 41.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 40.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 38.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 35.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes | 29c | 34.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 30c | 34.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 31c | 33.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 36c | 27.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 77c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 62c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 67c | 19.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 18.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.