Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe565a85dfe99445df7d6ea3d61ab0bdff7b0e2c97ca4da6496407adc5eda554e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 446.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.28 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 68c | 362.84$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 38c | 302.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.71 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 296.02$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 275$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 225.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 56c | 215.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 208.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 204.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 203.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 188.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 147.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 141.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 62c | 107$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 103.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 49c | 101.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 32c | 93.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 15c | 87.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 80.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 16c | 75.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 68.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 61.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 60.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 55.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 54c | 55.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 48.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 47.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 41c | 43.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 42.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 29c | 39.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 39.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 39.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 57c | 36.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 31.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…18fcbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 72c | 27.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 26.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 24.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 23.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 48c | 23.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 57c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 74c | 21.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 69c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 66c | 21.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 19.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 18.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 68c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 14.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 72c | 13.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.