Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd493d9e786f56fb74dadc05cdde0b55011fe7a0b9c3b22c481f8a06844327148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 831.42$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 567.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 539.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 5c | 455.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 440.68$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 25c | 339.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed Yes | 8c | 259.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 200.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 198.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 8c | 191.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 37c | 188.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 180.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 174.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 167.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 144.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 142.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 138.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 10c | 135.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes | 34c | 133.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 118.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 114.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 66c | 113.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 113.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 44c | 113.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 11c | 105.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 77c | 103.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 97.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 83.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 79.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 32c | 77.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 70.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 68.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Yes | 30c | 67.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 65.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 70c | 62.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 56.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 35c | 55.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 74c | 53.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 64c | 51.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 51.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 22c | 48.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 34c | 48.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed Yes | 24c | 46.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 44.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 35c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…1b53backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 62c | 39.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 42c | 39.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 30c | 39.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…4b9dbacked Yes | 37c | 35.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 35.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 50c | 31.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 51c | 29.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 26.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 57c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 70c | 25.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 61c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 65c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…2c2bbacked No | 75c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…f918backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…9b65backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 19.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.