Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35fef04ba99b62df61726b5f560b11b119a28a64e9bb562f38c9f8e7d4309aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 51c | 962.27$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.77 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…bb53backed Yes | 48c | 710.66$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.26 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Yes | 47c | 607.43$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.11 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 34c | 554.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 57c | 533.63$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 45c | 352.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.75 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 25c | 304.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 31c | 275.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 268.67$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Yes | 66c | 216.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 42c | 181$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 163.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Yes | 29c | 159.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 68c | 116$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 66c | 111.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 42c | 98.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 30c | 83.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 42c | 63.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4039…3ef3backed Yes | 26c | 50.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…5b2ebacked Yes | 64c | 49.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…617bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 40c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora: Draw (1-1)?this page
- Aurora to win 2-0?No won
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.